The two questions worth asking
A savings goal only has two useful forms. Either you know the deadline and need the monthly figure, or you know what you can spare and want the date. The tabs above switch between them; everything else stays the same.
Both run on the same arithmetic: your starting balance grows at the return rate, and each monthly deposit grows for however many months remain after it lands. Deposits are treated as arriving at the end of each month, which is the conservative assumption — paying at the start of the month gets there slightly sooner.
Why the return matters less than people expect
Over short horizons, almost all of the balance is money you put in. On a three-year goal at a sensible rate, growth typically contributes a few percent of the total — the comparison panel above shows exactly how much it is doing on your numbers.
Over long horizons the picture flips, and growth can eventually exceed contributions entirely. The crossover point sits somewhere around the fifteen-to-twenty-year mark at moderate rates. For a house deposit you are the engine; for a thirty-year goal, compounding is.
Choosing a return rate honestly
- Use 0 for cash you cannot risk. Money needed within a year or two belongs somewhere safe, and modelling it at 0 keeps the plan honest.
- Savings accounts change. A rate advertised today may not hold for the length of your goal.
- Investment returns are averages, not schedules. A long-run figure of 6% or 7% does not arrive as 6% every year. A goal with a hard deadline should not depend on markets cooperating in the final year.
- Inflation is not modelled here. The figure you get is in today's money; a goal ten years out will need more nominal cash than the same goal today.
If the monthly number looks impossible
Three levers exist, and only three: save more per month, allow more time, or need less. Raising the return rate is not a fourth — it is the one you control least. If the required deposit is out of reach, extend the deadline first and watch how quickly the monthly figure falls.